The Tillis/Powell/Warsh triangulation is the most under-reported systemic risk right now: a single Republican senator is using a DOJ criminal investigation of the sitting Fed chair as leverage to block his replacement — creating a scenario where the March 18 FOMC dot plot occurs under genuine constitutional ambiguity about Fed leadership, while markets price in Warsh's QT agenda as a done deal.
The BRICS credibility fracture (India endorsing dollar under tariff pressure) and the Warsh leadership limbo are structurally connected: if the de-dollarization narrative stalls AND the US Fed transition is blocked, the intermediate vacuum gets filled by infrastructure plays — ECB Pontes, BRICS Bridge CBDCs, and interoperable L1 settlement rails that don't need a reserve currency thesis to function.