The fact that Treasuries are SELLING OFF alongside equities means there is no safe-haven bid absorbing capital — every major asset class (stocks, bonds, crypto) faces simultaneous selling pressure, and the systematic strategies (risk-parity, vol-targeting, 60/40) that normally provide circuit-breaker buying when one leg falls are instead ALL de-leveraging at once.
A Fed frozen by oil-driven stagflation (cannot cut without feeding inflation, cannot hike into a weakening economy) removes the rate-cut narrative that drove 2025 BTC ETF inflows — if real rates stay high or rise, the opportunity cost for BTC as a non-yielding asset rises exactly as ETF forced-selling risk from equity de-leveraging peaks.