The real tell isn't that Treasuries aren't rallying — it's that gold and the Swiss franc absorbed the safe-haven bid instead, suggesting global capital is quietly repricing what counts as a "risk-free" asset in a world where the US is the belligerent, not the mediator.
If US Treasuries lose safe-haven status during US-initiated conflicts, the structural case for dollar-denominated onchain stablecoins (Tether/USDC) as "digital dollar" hegemony tools gets complicated — because the underlying credibility of US sovereign debt is being live-tested and found wanting.