The private credit contagion is NOT contained — it's spreading from Blue Owl (Feb 18 gate) to BlackRock (Mar 6 gate) with Fed/FSOC now actively monitoring, while Chinese banks simultaneously exit Treasuries creating a double supply shock in US debt markets at exactly the moment credit stress is peaking.
If private credit funds are forced to unwind, LPs needing cash will sell liquid assets first (equities, IG bonds, potentially BTC/ETH) — this is the non-obvious selling pressure vector that could push SPX through the 200-day MA, trigger ETF systematic selling, and cascade into crypto as a second-order shock that current BTC pricing does not reflect.