Iran is deliberately striking NATO members (Turkey) and neutral post-Soviet states (Azerbaijan) — not to win those engagements, but to force the US/NATO into a public choice: acknowledge this is regime change (which obligates Russia/China responses) or de-escalate before Article 5 is invoked; the missile near Turkey crossed three countries and can only be read as intentional escalation signaling, not a stray round.
Trump's demand to pick Iran's next leader + China's defense budget announcement on the same day = Beijing just watched the US declare it can install leadership in sovereign nations via military force; Taiwan's March 15 arms deadline now sits inside a world where US credibility on sovereign guarantees is openly questioned — this is the structural argument China will use to justify accelerated Taiwan pressure regardless of which LY version passes.