Iran naming Mojtaba Khamenei despite explicit assassination threats from both Trump ("won't last long") and IDF ("we will not hesitate to target you") is either a massive bluff call or an invitation to the next decapitation strike — and if Israel does kill the new Supreme Leader, any remaining internal Iranian moderates lose all political ground and Iran's most hardline IRGC factions assume complete control of the war, removing any pathway to negotiated settlement.
Iran threatening Gulf oil facilities in retaliation for Tehran refinery strikes puts Brent on a direct path toward $100+, which triggers the same risk-off cascade that collapsed crypto in early March — simultaneously, China's Hormuz transit lane becomes more strategically valuable to Xi as leverage in the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (end of March), meaning Xi holds an oil price kill-switch heading into the most important US-China meeting in years.